Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Our Continuing Wall-To-Wall Coverage of ABQ Election '09; We've Got All The Action, Plus: A New Guv Candidate? And: State Budget Chaos Escalates

The hits keep coming in the 2009 race for ABQ mayor, but an old enemy of all politicians--the clock--has begun to tick louder, signaling that this battle is peaking and soon we'll be writing election history, not election news. But the trio of hopefuls are in the bubble for a few more days and they're furiously making the rounds at senior centers, factory gates, the radio airwaves and just about anywhere else where there isn't a "No Solicitor" or "No Politician" sign posted.

Judging from the latest hit piece posted here from Republican RJ Berry, Mayor Marty Chavez is conducting his final hours of campaigning from a trolley car, but there is no trolley, only the imaginary dollars discussed for one and RJ's imagination to make conservative voters fear four more years of Chavez steering city government. Berry seems to have nailed down a good deal of that conservative vote--if he can get them to the polls. That's one reason one R insider said RJ showed up on TV news Wednesday casting his vote early.

RJ voted early to drive the turnout message home to Republicans. His lead in the Journal poll will evaporate if Republicans get trounced in turnout...

The ABQ Journal duo of Dan McKay and Sean Olson tells us the early vote so far totals 12,000. That's way ahead of 2005, but not necessarily a sign of more interest or a higher turnout. We talked up Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff on the topic and we both agreed that early voting has become so popular in the last few years that many of those voting early in this election are not new voters, but ones who in the past would have cast their votes on Election Day. Sanderoff does not have a specific forecast for turnout, but does not expect it to be high.

THE LIBERAL DILEMMA
Sen. Feldman
If anything is gong to induce sleepless nights and an overindulgence in comfort food for an ABQ liberal, it is the thought of Republican RJ Berry becoming the city's first GOP mayor since Harry Kinney ended his final term in 1985. But Chavez is keeping the buzz going that a vote for fellow Democrat Richard Romero is a vote that could get RJ closer to the 11th floor of city hall.

That Howard Dean robo call on behalf of Marty by his old friend, a noted progressive and ex-chairman of the national Dem Party, sent the fur flying. Some of the Flying Star crowd is now split over whether to go with Chavez, who does not have a progressive record on such issues as urban growth. But they want to ensure that Berry does not get to 40 percent next Tuesday night and capture the prize without a runoff election. The hair-pulling and sleep deprivation among our progressive friends will continue right up until Election Day.

But you've got to give points to Romero. Unlike his two runs for Congress, he seems to be finding his voice in the final hours of this campaign. The Dean call sent him hustling and he trotted out a long list of prominent progressives who are not going to follow Dean. One of them was ABQ State Senator Dede Feldman who recorded an automatic phone call Wednesday night and said of her former state Senate colleague:

"He's' a good Democrat...he's the only Democrat in this race who can win and change this city's future."

Other prominent city progressives who remain in Romero's corner were listed in his e-mail:

City Councilor Debbie O'Malley, City Councilor Rey Garduñdo, City Councilor Michael Cadigan, State Rep. Mimi Stewart, State Rep. Danice Picraux, State Rep. Eleanor Chavez, State Sen. Dede Feldman, State Sen. Eric Griego, State Sen. Cisco McSorley, State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino, State Sen. Tim Keller and Judy Espinoza, former NM Environment Secretary.


Romero, 62, has big ups and downs in his lengthy political career. He is showing no signs of backing down, insisting everywhere he goes that Chavez is finished, that there just isn't blood in the water, but a full-fledged carcass floating around. The mayor delivered a sharp upper cut with that Dean phone call, but Romero came with a partial block. This game is on and going the distance.

NO ENDORSEMENT HERE

No endorsement in the ABQ mayor's race from V.B Price, one of the state's most respected liberal voices. The writer and poet has covered every ABQ mayoral race since we started the modern form of government in 1974, and he is not finding this one to his liking:

The October 6 mayoral election will result, I’m pretty sure, in a ho-hum run off. No one will get the 40 percent of the vote needed to win. But who wins and loses won’t matter very much as far as the city’s future is concerned. Their campaigns are as relevant to the environmental and economic realities of the moment as phony non-partisan elections are relevant to the party warfare of post-Bush, Obama America.

Still, the sometimes pessimistic Price calls ABQ "a great city" and credits citizen volunteers and professionals, not the politicians, for successes like preserving open space and the bosque, nurturing the "magnificent" museums, the zoo, library system and for having adequate services for the homeless and medically indigent.

PLAYING IT COOL

As all hell broke out within its ranks, they were playing it as cool as a cucumber at the NM Democratic Party. They are not getting anywhere near that liberal squabble over Romero and Chavez. Instead, the party issued a statement urging the election of a Dem mayor--either Richard or Marty--even as they acknowledge that the race is officially nonpartisan. But the R's have already come with help for RJ, so there's not much point of hiding their interest. New Dem Party Chairman Javier Gonzales is getting his first look at what he faces as he works to unite the party for 2010. He could get an early workout if Berry gets into a runoff with Chavez or Romero. Fired up Dems are going to expect him to hold the Dem fort in New Mexico's major metro.

COUNCIL ACTION

With the mayor's race breaking out into a free-for-all, the two city council races that feature some action have been virtually ignored. City Council President Ike Benton is being challenged by former city councilor and current Bernalillo County Commissioner Alan Armijo. Analysts have been talking about how this is a heavy Hispanic district that Benton won four years ago in a race that featured no Hispanic Dem. They wonder if Dem Armijo can pull the upset based on ethnic voting and his long record of public service. But as you see in the mail pieces we posted, Benton, an architect, is fighting for another four years. He is out with a negative as well as a positive piece. We'd post Armijo mail, but haven't seen any yet. The district includes the downtown and Barelas neighborhoods as well as areas around UNM

CADIGAN VS. LEWIS

This is the other council race drawing attention as political newcomer and R Dan Lewis continues a stiff challenge to two term incumbent and Democrat Michael Cadigan. Lewis has flooded the Westside district with a lot of negative mail on Cadigan who has widespread name ID. An independent group calling itself "abqcc5" has cut radio ads attacking Cadigan. SunCal, the land development company, has also weighed in against the councilor. He has opposed their pursuit of a TIDD, a tax break vehicle. You can see the gist of what Lewis is coming with by clicking on the mailer we posted here.

The district can lean conservative. Cadigan found that out after he was first elected and a recall effort was launched against him, but failed. Cadigan, an attorney, did win the endorsement of the ABQ Journal, despite some controversy over zoning cases Cadigan was embroiled in. Lewis has just picked up the nod of the Animal Protection Voters who say Cadigan hasn't been supportive of the Animal Welfare Department. R's like Lewis and think that, win or lose, he has a future in elective politics.

'10 CYCLE IS OFFICIAL


Today is the first day candidates for statewide office can begin circulating their nominating petitions for the 2010 election. That makes this election cycle officially underway. Candidates will have until February to gather those signatures.

GOVERNOR SCHAEFER?


An independent candidate for Governor? We haven't been able to confirm, but our reliable Alligators say former Public Regulation Commission Tony Schaefer, who just last week told us he would not seek the PRC seat being vacated by Sandy Jones who is running for land commissioner, is calling friends telling them he is looking at an indy run. Schaefer, is now a Dem, but started off s an R. He is from Las Cruces. It would take thousands of petition signatures for him to qualify for next year's ballot, but the prospect of an indy candidacy adds to the list of fun things to watch.

BIG BILL APPROVAL

The ABQ Journal poll in mid-September had Big Bill just over the crucial 50% approval level--he was at 51%--but SurveyUSA, in a poll just completed for KOB-TV, has the Guv a shade lower, but still on the rebound. The survey said Bill scores a 48% approval rating and 47% disapprove with 5% not sure. MOE is + or - 4.1%. Richardson bottomed out in SurveyUSA earlier this year at 42%.

DON'T FORGET THE HOUSE

Rep. Rodefer
Maybe the state Senate is amenable to cutting public education against the wishes of Big Bill, but let's not forget the House. The cuts would have to win approval there as well. From an e-mail sent to state school superintendents by Dem ABQ Westside state Rep. Ben Rodefer:

I already have a substantial number of votes in the House against any budget agreement that includes cuts to public school funding. I want to further promise you personally that I will fight with every political breath I have to kill in the House of Representatives any public school cuts whatsoever, whether they be statewide or specific to your district.


Well, maybe Ben does have the votes, but he will want to double check with that other Ben--House Speaker Ben Lujan. Rodefer is a first-term lawmaker who took the seat from R Eric Youngberg. Now the R's are talking about trying to take it back next year.

BUDGET SHOCK

We're almost as shocked over the continued increase in the projections for the state budget shortfall as we were over that ABQ Journal mayoral poll showing Marty Chavez in second place. Estimates for the shortfall for the current budget year are simply exploding as the state struggles with the worst recession since the Depression. The AP's Barrey Massey has a piece for all us budget watchers and the latest gloomy outlook. Big Bill will call a special session of the 112 legislators for later this month where they will grapple with the state's money woes.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Marty's Survival Kit: Negative Mail, Positive TV And A Howard Dean Robo Call; Embattled Mayor Mounts Final Push, Plus: Latest From The Two Richards

ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez, fighting for his political life in a race that suddenly morphed from lackluster to compelling, is coming with a blend of negative and positive messages in the final hours as he works to slow opponents Richard Romero and RJ Berry and avoid the ignominious end that has been the fate of so many other ABQ mayors.

And Chavez showed an ace in this high-stakes political poker game Tuesday night. Former national Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean, a darling of Dem progressives, many of whom are backing Romero, was enlisted by Chavez to record a robo call in support of the mayor that was piped into Dem households across the Duke City. For Chavez, it could not have come at a better time.

Dean, who was the mayor's first choice for the 2004 Dem presidential nomination, has been front and center in the media debate over the public option for health care, the issue that tops the charts for progressives. Dean's call could help halt any Dem momentum for Romero. There is real fear among liberals that Republican Berry could be elected mayor because of the Dem split between Chavez and Romero. The Dean phone call did not attack Romero, but it didn't have to. Just having the former Vermont governor pick up the phone for Chavez said it all.

A REFORMED POLLYANNA

The political intelligentsia is now signing on to the theory that the most likely outcome next week will be a Berry-Chavez runoff, but that was the same crowd that lulled the mayor into believing the race was his to lose. Chavez is now a reformed Pollyanna and is taking a surgical and measured approach during these, the most critical days of his career.

As you see from the pic posted at the top, Chavez is in the mailboxes with a heavy hit piece against fellow Dem Richard Romero. The former state senator was performing at 24 percent to Chavez's 26 percent and Berry's 31 percent in last week's ABQ Journal poll. Like the Dean phone call, this is a Chavez play to get Dems to move away from Romero, but it's much more direct, ripping Richard for having once been a registered Republican.

"Richard Romero was an R who switched parties to gain a personal advantage," the hit piece declares. Romero was indeed a Republican years ago, but has always sought elective office as a Democrat.

Romero's lobbying is also slammed:

As a special interest lobbyist, former Republican Richard Romero gained special favors for this big money clients, while ignoring working class Democrats.

Romero was a top lobbyist for the University of New Mexico and Isleta Pueblo, among others. But they don't seem to be groups that would be offensive to "working class" Dems.

Chavez is also up on radio with an attack against Berry for not releasing his tax return and for failing to register a business he owns. And there's this Chavez TV spot playing that promotes Chavez's work putting a tough sex offender law on the books. Berry is hitting hard on the crime issue in a TV ad that began Monday.

TAKE THAT, MARTY


Romero did not take the mayor's attacks in stride. He scratched back at His Honor in an e-mail to supporters:

Let's not forget, Mr. Chavez is the man who claimed Sen. Tom Udall is "so far to the left, I'd rather not have him in the race," for U.S. Senate. From my perspective, I'm proud to have Tom Udall representing me in Washington...

And Berry backers stayed busy preaching the conservative mantra they hope that next Tuesday will advance their man to at least a runoff, if not the mayoralty. In an e-mail circulating that could have impact on Catholic Hispanic Dems, Berry was lauded for his stance on abortion and marriage. The e-mail said Berry is "the only pro life mayoral candidate; the only pro traditional marriage candidate. It also calls Berry "pro small business--RJ and wife Maria Medina run family owned construction business..."

We haven't seen any Spanish language media by Chavez or Romero. In years past there has been some. In past city campaigns we've also seen negative campaign lit placed on the windshield wipers of cars parked at church services on the Sunday before the Tuesday election.

SMOKING OUT RJ

Chavez is also taking another bite out of Berry via the US mail. That piece, like the radio ad, smacks the NE Heights representative for not releasing his tax return while Chavez and Romero have agreed to. A pic of the lit is posted here. In his final TV, in which he will address the most voters, Chavez's campaign says he will take a positive tack.

Chavez already has high negatives and going negative on TV wouldn't help matters. One analyst said the mayor is walking a fine line in hitting back at Romero and Berry, but not appearing desperate. That's especially true since the stuff Chavez is slamming Berry and Romero with is not high-octane enough to move big numbers, but plays best in the mail and radio for cherry picking votes. Chavez is likely to add negative robo calls to the mix and God knows what all the campaigns will hit with this weekend when no one is watching and there is no time to respond before Tuesday.

POSITIVE, FOR A CHANGE


But it's not all negative in the mail. Chavez played nice when he went after independent voters with this piece. Many indys have peeled off Chavez this time, but many are still in the undecided column. As for the outright undecided, many won't vote, but all the campaigns are working to get those that will. We talked with KRQE-TV about that angle.

Team Chavez says the hits on Romero are necessary after weeks of unanswered Richard attacks on Marty. They seem to have a well thought out blend, if voters are still listening.

THEY CALL IT G-O-T-V

The get-out-the-vote drive is really where Chavez needs a big payoff. He's done it more than the other guys, and with all these organizations endorsing him he has plenty of shoe leather at the ready. One question that may gnaw at him is whether the rank and file membership of all the groups that are endorsing him will follow the recommendation of their leaders, or split apart. But then this is a mayor who has much to worry about in the wee hours of the morning when he is not out battling for his future.

BACK TO BERRY

Tuesday was another day of what appears to most analysts as all or maybe nothing at all campaigning by Republican Berry. He trotted out GOP Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White to hit Chavez over the "sanctuary city" wedge issue. White cut radio to boost Berry, in part because he is mad at Marty for saying during a TV debate that White's sanctuary policy on immigrants has done nothing to lower crime in the unincorporated areas of Bernalillo County. White's endorsement of Berry is wrapped into Berry's sanctuary city spot. Marty and Darren have long been friends, but tribal loyalties are calling loudly now as the fight for control of the state's largest city gets up close and personal.

Berry knows that winning a runoff against Chavez or Romero in a Dem leaning city may be about as likely as Paul Krebs getting the UNM Athletic Department straightened out. So he is betting big on rallying the conservatives in hopes of reaching the magic 40 percent and avoiding a second round when the wrath of the state and national Democratic establishments comes down on him.

A CHAVEZ-ROMERO RUNOFF??


If none of the mayor candidates reaches 40 percent next Tuesday,
the Alligators think the most unlikely runoff combination is the two Dems--Chavez and Romero. Most see Berry securing a spot in any run-off because of the strength of his base Republican vote. But what if Berry falls short and Romero and Chavez are the top two vote-getters but stuck below 40? What could we expect in the Nov. 24 run-off?

Well, the last time two Hispanic Democrats faced off for the mayor's chair was in the 1989 mayoral runoff when educator Louis Saavedra handily defeated City Councilor Pat Baca. Saavedra picked up the Republican vote in the NE Heights and combined it with conservative Dems to take the title. Would a Chavez-Romero race have a similar outcome? Without Berry, Chavez would likely take the R vote as Saavedra did, combine it with his Westside support and perhaps take the win. Romero, however, would not be out of it. If Chavez is forced into a runoff it could be seen as a major upset and give Romero momentum.

TAKIN' IT TO THE STREETS


If you live in the ABQ area you've seen the enthusiastic brigades waving Mayor Marty and Richard Romero signs from bridge overpasses and street corners (Maybe a couple of RJ ones, too). It's a time honored tradition and one that we trace to Big Bill and his 1980 ABQ campaign for the US House against GOP US Rep. Manuel Lujan.

Back then youngsters popped up all over the place on Election Day happily waving their Richardson signs in the hopes of influencing voters as they made their way to the polls. Now the kids are out days ahead of the main event as early voting has become a mainstay. The downside is that it can be a bit distracting for motorists. But for many of those waving the signs, it is their first introduction to politics. A little infectious enthusiasm can't be all bad.

TOO DIRTY FOR YOU?

So the negative hit pieces are mud in your eye and on your computer screen? Go ahead and click here for a free wash job. It's our election gift just for you.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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Monday, September 28, 2009

Berry Stays On Right; Renews Sanctuary City Wedge Issue In New Ads, Chavez Opens Counteroffensive; Romero Energized & Still Mailing; Details Up Next

Republican RJ Berry came with new TV and radio Monday, again using the controversial "sanctuary city" policy to energize and extend his conservative base as he looks to lock in a spot in a run-off, even while nursing hope for a long shot first-round knockout in next Tuesday's ABQ mayoral election. Meanwhile, Mayor Marty Chavez opened a two pronged front against Berry and Democrat Richard Romero. And Romero counted on more mailed hit pieces against Chavez to knock the embattled mayor down further.

But all eyes were on Berry, the far NE Heights state representative who struck like a bolt out the blue and landed in first place in he ABQ Journal poll Sunday, scoring 31 percent to Chavez's 26 percent and Romero's 24 percent. Nineteen percent were undecided in the Sept. 22-24 survey.

With a hard-hitting radio spot on the sanctuary issue and a TV ad on property crime that weaves the issue in, Berry signaled that he will work to preserve his current standing and also give himself a chance to eke out 40 percent of the vote for a first-round win. If no one gets to 40, we have a run-off election between the two top vote-getters Nov. 24. But relying on a wedge issue sensitive to Hispanics and Dems exposes him to criticism that he is toying with the race card. That's a charge already being tossed about by the Chavez camp as they digest Berry's latest move.

In the TV ad, Berry, 46, points out that his own truck was stolen. He claims "property crime is out of control" here, but is down in the border area cities of Phoenix, El Paso and San Diego. He promises a crackdown on gangs, a pawn shop patrol and an "end the mayor's sanctuary city policy for criminals."

He also doesn't forget what lies at the heart of his candidacy, concluding his spot hitting Chavez this way: "After 12 years, it's time for something new."

As we said, the Berry radio ad is harder and goes for Marty's jugular:

...We'll tell you the facts about ABQ's sanctuary city policy...criminals who should be deported are never turned over to immigration officials. It's made ABQ a sanctuary city. Chavez doesn't like that term but newspapers have said it. The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service has said it. It is a fact. And it attracts criminals. Richard Berry thinks that's wrong...

The TV ad attempts to cast a wider net, but this is still an uphill fight for Berry to secure 40% of the vote when the percent of registered ABQ Republican voters is way below that. However, Democratic pollster Harry Pavlides says if turnout collapsed to around 70,0000 to 75,000 the GOP vote would probably comprise about 42 percent of the overall vote because R's vote more reliably. That would make the 40 percent more realistic. But it would be a whale of a collapse in turnout, considering about 87,000 ballots were cast in the mayoral contest four years ago.

REPUBLICAN WORRY

Some R's fretted that if Berry can't pull the upset and put the race away with a first-round knockout, he will be faced with defending his sanctuary city policy in a run-off. That could make the run-off racially tinged and rally the Democratic base, making it even more difficult than it already is for an R to take the city's top job. Berry's camp knows that, but the GOP is not a big tent anymore. It's a small, red-meat party and demands to be well-fed before it marches to the polls. One R experienced in such matters put it this way:

The run-off is definitely unwinnable if we’re not in it. If we take our foot off the gas and start looking at the run-off, we can very easily wind up in third place, or Chavez can hit 40%.

In other words, staying in the game is the first order of business. Worries over a run-off or whether there is one will have to wait their turn.

THE CHAVEZ CORNER

Fear, terror, panic. All are emotions that seized top city employees Monday as they looked aghast at the Journal poll showing their boss in danger of losing power and they in danger of losing their fat paychecks. They looked on anxiously as Chavez, seeking a third term in a row and a fourth overall, launched some of his counteroffensive against Berry and Romero who have been beating the daylights out of him.

Chavez slammed Berry on "transparency," criticizing him anew for not releasing his tax returns, for using an office building he owns as a campaign headquarters and paying himself rent (the Berry campaign says the rent was donated to charity) and knocking the R for failing to register his consulting business with the city. (Berry recently registered that business after failing to do so.)

The mayor also used longtime ally and Democratic City Councilor Ken Sanchez to take a bite out of the other Richard. In an e-mail message sent by Sanchez, who is running unopposed for his Westside council seat, Romero was painted as a friend of the R's:

Over the last five years, Santa Fe Lobbyist Richard Romero has given or funneled $21,300 to Republican politicians. Why did a self described "progressive" Democrat become a Santa Fe lobbyist and use his position to funnel tens of thousands of dollars to right wing Republicans that they use to bash Democrats and advance their right wing agenda? That's not principled and it's certainly not courageous.

ROMERO'S RIFF

Romero, clearly energized by coming in only two points behind Chavez in the Journal survey, was confident enough to write Chavez's obituary in his TV interviews. He continues to spin that a mayor with "99 percent name ID" and 26 percent voter support "is done." His campaign said his final week mail will continue to assail Chavez.

Romero, who himself was the subject of political obituaries after two failed bids for the ABQ US House seat, was saying the exact opposite of Chavez--that Dems who don't want to see the city's first GOP mayor since the 80's need to come to him now that fellow Dem Chavez is down in the dumps.

Chavez did not hit with new TV, but the political community is expecting it as soon as today. Marty's strategists huddled and cell-phoned throughout the day, some of them unable to accept that their man had actually sunk to 26 percent, a number not seen since he first sought the mayor's office in 1993. In TV interviews (here and here) the mayor seemed less buoyant than usual as he somberly assessed the polling that has turned this race upside down and threatens to end his long dominance of city politics.

OTHER ACTORS

The firefighters union, the police union and the big union kahuna--AFSCME--are all hitting the mailboxes to prop up Mayor Marty. AFSCME, which represents some 3,500 city employees, will be in the mail slots this week.

When Chavez won the AFSCME endorsement this summer it was almost as shocking as the poll now showing him behind Berry. AFSCME's usual liberalism went by the wayside as they thought Chavez was a sure winner who would protect the membership against layoffs and job cuts as the city struggles financially. Now with Chavez on the ropes the union can be expected to call out the troops. Vacation and sick days could be used en masse to get union members to the frontlines to turn out the vote for Chavez. It is a potent weapon for the mayor, even if one of the local unions that make up AFSCME tried to break away and endorse Romero.


THE R'S AND BERRY


The state GOP has openly supported Berry, registering a finance committee with the city. Without their support Berry would never have been able to collect the necessary signatures and donations to qualify for the ballot and to get public financing. So will the state GOP be going all in during these final, climatic days? Not really, responds GOP acting executive director Ryan Cangliosi. He says the party is mailing out a piece urging voters to reject renewing the quarter cent transit tax for another ten years, but nothing directly in favor of Berry. But voters prone to vote against the tax will also be prone to vote for Berry. This way the GOP avoids triggering the matching funds provision for Chavez and Romero by not directly spending money on RJ.

TAX PASSING

It appears the R's are going to have to mail a lot to stop the transit tax from being renewed next Tuesday. Our insiders tipped us off to a poll conducted by a pro-tax group earlier this month that showed the tax winning. Now the ABQ Journal comes with its poll that says 57 percent approve of the tax. Add on to that the pro-tax TV ads that are on the air, and the R's can kiss goodbye any chance of killing the levy which brings in some $36 million a year.

THE BOTTOM LINES


It was the 1993 mayoral run-off when the political landscape last changed as dramatically in a city contest, not the 2001 mayoral election. We blogged otherwise Monday. In '93, Chavez was in a run-off with former GOP Governor Dave Cargo and initial polling showed Chavez ahead by more than 20 points. Cargo closed rapidly in the final days and lost by under 600 votes, the closest ABQ mayoral race ever. We should not have made the mistake. We handled Cargo's media in that '93 run-off and in 2001 we did the same for Chavez....

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Madcap Mayor's Race: Contest Reshapes As Poll Stunner Is Absorbed; Only One Week To Win; Pressure Builds On Trio Of Hopefuls, Complete Blog Coverage

What was to have been a mayoral race that was nearly a foregone conclusion jumped to life this weekend as the ABQ Journal dropped a bombshell poll showing incumbent Mayor Marty Chavez sharing space on the endangered species list with the silvery minnow, and causing the denizens of affluent areas of Albuquerque to rattle their jewelry in unison as Republican Richard "RJ" Berry charged into the lead. Meanwhile, ABQ liberals surprised themselves by vaulting Democrat Richard Romero into a solid third place showing, just two points behind the near-legendary Chavez, sometimes called--either with derision on delight--"Mayor for Life."

So what's next? Well, the short answer is everything. There are now so may possible combinations to victory for this trio that Willie Sutton would have a hard time figuring them out. But there is something that separates Berry from his brethren--his best chance to take the prize appears to be right here, right now. But before we get to that, let's point out one of the defining features of this race and why Chavez is in deeper trouble than might be expected. We have two candidates with strong support among Hispanics--and one Anglo. Hispanics are splitting between Chavez and Romero. Berry is by far the top choice among Anglos. Ethnic politics lives.

BERRY PICKING


If Berry, 46, doesn't score 40 percent next Tuesday night and is thrown into a run-off with either Chavez or Romero, the Democratic nature of the city could make his quest more difficult than Sisyphus. The Journal poll says he has 31 percent in the bank. That's nine more to go, but it has the analysts, pundits, and Alligators---you know, the ones who were so spot-on in saying this thing was in the bag for Chavez (Not)!)--scratching their collective hides in bewilderment. Berry has successfully consolidated much of the Republican base--about a third of the vote--but what does he do from here? Probably more of the same--cultivating more R's and continued jabs at Marty.

HEATHER HITS FOR BERRY


Berry did a slick job tying together loose ends left from that attack piece from Chavez that questioned his credentials as a "successful businessman." None other than Heather Wilson was trotted out via the US mail to help extinguish that blaze that may have actually sent flames back on the face of Mayor Marty. (Part of that response featuring Marty as Pinocchio is posted here. Will Marty now go after RJ's moustache?) Well, there's nothing like a Dem like Chavez attacking an R to reawaken tribal loyalties. And pulling out the fire extinguishers to help the state's newest GOP star, isn't going to do any damage to Heather if she decides to seek the 2010 GOP Guv nomination.

Campaign insiders say Berry will close out the week with heavy radio and mail. He has been hitting the same TV spot since the beginning and its been working--at least with R's and many independents.

For RJ, a run-off appears to be a done deal. The R's and assorted conservatives appear to have guaranteed that. He will not try to make a turn to the center now, preserving that option for any run-off. For the Oct. 6 round he will run the get-out-the-vote play and hope for a low-turnout election in which Republican votes are magnified, thereby eking out the 40 percent. Many of the undecided voters (19 percent) are in the conservative far NE Heights. An outright win with mainly R's and indys can be done, but if it isn't, Berry's chances of becoming mayor become more complicated in a one-on-one against an Hispanic Dem.

RJ has himself in the thick of the action, but instead of clarity, things look murkier. That's what tends to happen as the keys to City Hall and the brightly lit stage of statewide La Politica are about to handed out. No one is giving them away.

THE CHAVEZ CHALLENGE

Marty Chavez has had those keys in his possession for three mayoral terms. Maybe they are a little tarnished after his 26 percent, second place showing in the Journal poll taken Sept. 22 to 24, but they are still his. Can he keep them?

Chavez, never one to waste time, was already working the circuit Sunday night, only hours after the survey's release. He saw what you saw--he is getting clobbered with independent voters--and he reacted by hitting Berry for failing to release his tax return while he and Romero have both agreed. It is an issue sensitive for independent voters and one of many Chavez hits to expect on Berry-and probably Romero--in the final week of this campaign.

Historical side note: The Journal survey marks the most precipitous change in an ABQ mayoral election since the 1993 mayoral run-off. That's when Dave Cargo caught fire and closed to within 600 votes of Chavez, giving us the closest city hall contest in history.

Chavez still has money left from the $328,000 kitty in public financing each candidate qualified for. That will give him some extra ammo to fire at his newly muscular foes. Chavez, to his detriment, has thus far decided to completely ignore the repeated mail attacks from Romero.

Another of those hits hit the mailboxes this weekend, asking if it isn't time "we make ethics a priority at city hall." It's just what the liberals, progressives--or whatever moniker is in vogue this week--love. That lib vote is gone for Chavez, but analysts inform us there there is a bevy of undecided Democrats--usually ones in Chavez's corner--who have been put in the undecided column because of the hit pieces. Chavez needs to reclaim them and the independents that have been bleeding to RJ if he is to get back to his traditional base of support of around 35%. That would likely place him in a run-off, assuming Romero is capped at below 30 percent.

CLAIM THE CENTER

The Alligators say Chavez needs to reclaim the center in his fight for survival. The election, they analyze, has become polarized between left and right with Chavez sagging in the middle. His campaign, said one, "needs vitality." Chavez would probably agree. His media is largely stay the course and has done little to inoculate him against "Chavez Fatigue"--that's the ailment a portion of the electorate has caught after 20 years of exposure to Marty, starting with his state senate career in 1989.

Chavez's plight is made explicit by the Journal's survey showing that 58 percent of the city--despite some serious economic woes--say the city is headed in the right direction. But the guy who heads the city isn't headed in the right direction? Therein lies the impact of Chavez Fatigue, the Chavez personality and the Chavez dark side explored in those Bode surveillance tapes spread on the Net.

REMEMBER ME?

In the final week, Chavez may want to remind voters that much of what they like about ABQ, he built. He started on that tack Sunday night by e-mailing supporters the Journal's endorsement of his candidacy, also made Sunday, but diluted by the news making power of the mayoral poll. He may also think about that "trolley" that isn't built but is becoming a yoke around his neck thanks to RJ's TV spot. There may be populist resentment building around it that is keeping those independent and conservative Dems from coming home to the mayor's camp.

Chavez will likely rework his personal message to voters with new TV and media, but with everything now on the line, he will also bring out the cannons and fire repeatedly. He is playing for the run-off now. The 40 percent is out there, but you need a pair of glasses with lenses as thick as Coke bottles to spot it.

ROMERO RUMBLES


He's been the least talked about candidate in this race, in part because he has not been on television, and in modern politics you don't seem to exist unless you are on the tube. We've been among the doubters of the no-TV strategy, but Romero, 62, has gained admittance to the contest without it, so more power to him. And he won't be forgotten now--not by Marty Chavez.

His drumbeat of negative mail against Chavez on topics ranging from a downtown arena to the mayor's foreign travels have garnered him 24 percent of the vote and third place in the Journal poll. But he needs first or second to make the run-off. His best bet, say our analysts, may not rest solely with growing his base vote--like Berry he has much of it harvested--but in continuing to hammer Chavez and keeping the mayor from growing much.

Romero's get out the vote drive is critical because his voters may tend to be younger. He shook up his campaign earlier this year and questions remained about his GOTV. They are about to be answered.

Romero will now be accused of pulling a Manny Aragon redux. In 2001, as an ABQ state senator, he ousted fellow Democrat Manny from the top leadership post of the senate and formed a coalition with R's that put him in power. Now, the Chavez camp is already blasting that Romero is putting the city on a path to getting its first Republican mayor since Harry Kinney was elected in 1981. But it's Romero's job to win, not to play footsie over intra-party politics. Besides, according to him, with 99 percent name ID and only 26 percent support in the poll, Chavez "is done."

Top Dems can be expected to stay clear of this contest in the final days. If and when it is a Dem vs. a Republican in a run-off, the race will quickly become partisan. But for now Romero can argue that he is the real Dem in the race, not out chasing R votes as Chavez has throughout his political career. Maybe he turns that into a rallying cry in the final days as he tries to pull undecided Dems off the fence and push him into a run-off.

THOSE ANIMAL SPIRITS

With the animal sprits released by this poll, will there be "third party" spending popping up in the final hours? The ethics watchdogs will be looking for it. Third party spending against or for a candidate is supposed to result in matching funds for the other candidate, but if the hit comes over the weekend, those matching funds are about as good as monopoly money. It's one of the loopholes in the public financing system. We'll see if anyone tries to jump through it.

THEY SAID IT

Sen. Griego
ABQ Dem state Senator Eric Griego who ran second behind Chavez in the 2005 mayoral contest gave the universal response when we asked how he reacted to the mayoral poll. "Surprised, very surprised," he declared. He called the race a "free-for-all" and noted the psychology has changed which could prompt some of the mayor's supporters to look for a different horse to ride.

Griego a former city councilor, agreed with the majority of analysts that Chavez is still in the game despite being in second. He said independents are key to Chavez's comeback. And Griego, who will guest with us Monday at 5 p.m. on our election pre-game show on KANW 89.1 FM FM, predicted there "will absolutely be a run-off" election. If he is right, that contest would be held Tuesday, November 24.

Former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca, another longtime political foe of Chavez, was also thrown for a loop by pollster Brian Sanderoff's survey and agreed with Sanderoff that Chavez getting slammed from both the left and right is what has slowed him.

Jim says forget about final week strategy--(What? And ignore this entire column?) He says it is now about getting out the vote, that Chavez is not going to change many minds, but that he has a formidable organization that he is going to have to ignite in order to save his career. (We still think there is time for much issue shaping. A week is a lifetime in politics.) Baca also says a run-off is very likely. We will line up Baca for Election Night comments on KANW 89.1 FM. That coverage, with Dem analyst John Wertheim and R analyst and State Rep. Larry Larranaga, kicks off at 6:30 p.m. Do you think those fellas will have anything to talk about?

MADRID NOT RUNNING

Former ABQ mayor and land commissioner Baca reports ex-Attorney General Patricia Madrid is not running for the Dem nomination for land commissioner. He said that news came in a recent phone call he had with Patsy. So far, Dems Sandy Jones and Ray Powell are the two declared candidates. Insiders say Española Mayor Joe Maestas and Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya are also weighing bids. On the R side, GOP activist Bob Cornelius and retired DEA agent Errol Chavez are the two announced contenders.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Journal Mayor Poll: It's Berry, Berry Good; RJ Surprises Marty 31% to 26%; Romero In With 24%; Undecided is 19%

An old-fashioned surprise has lifted the ABQ mayor's race to must-viewing status for the final week. The ABQ Journal poll hit the streets Sunday, catching just about all the pundits and prognosticators with their pants down, but injecting a level of excitement not previously seen in the race that ends October 6. At least the first round ends then. The odds that no candidate will reach the required 40%, forcing a November 24 run-off election between the top two contenders is high, if the September 22-24 survey of 406 likely voters has it right.

RJ Berry tops the poll with 31 percent, the result of strength among Republicans and independents. Mayor Marty Chavez came with a number that simply stunned the political community--26 percent. That is well below the 35 percent considered the three term mayor's base vote. The other Dem in the race, Richard Romero, is just two points behind the mayor, garnering 24 percent and undecided is at 19 percent. The margin of error for the survey is + or - 5 percent.

Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff says the battering Chavez, 57, has been getting on the right from Berry and on the left from Romero has taken its toll. But this was one of the most surprising surveys in Sanderoff's decades-long career. From the paper:

Berry's advantage over an incumbent mayor who seemed to have satisfied most voters over the past four years was surprising, Sanderoff said. "I don't think anyone doubted Martin Chávez had a large lead a month ago," Sanderoff said. "What it comes down to is Richard Berry and Richard Romero have focused their criticism on Chávez and this has taken its toll."

No one is out of this one. Get ready for a wild and wacky week of ABQ politics and for an exciting night of election returns Oct. 6 when we take to the airwaves of KANW 89.1 FM. Meanwhile, take a look at that poll and join us for more on Monday.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Brother, Can You Spare A Job? NM Recession Hits Harder; We're On The Econ Beat, Plus: Mayor '09: RJ Berry & A Girl Named Maria; Your Blog Starts Now

It's starting to remind us of the 1970's around here. That's when double-digit unemployment was common in many counties and the unemployment office was usually backed up and/or broken down. The newest jobless stats say job growth in NM is at a 65 year low. The August unemployment rate has now soared to 7.5 percent, a nearly 13 year high, but the numbers nerds repeat what they have been saying throughout this recession--the measurement appears too low:

Job growth is at a 65-year low, while the unemployment rate is still at only a 12½-year high. Individual data series provide differing readings of the severity of the current downturn. To more accurately gauge local employment conditions, we suggest looking
at all the workforce indicators published in this report...

In other words, the unemployment rate is under reported.

For the ABQ area, which includes Bernalillo, Sandoval and Valencia Counties, the official jobless rate for August climbed to 7.4 percent. If we recall correctly, that is a new high for this Great Recession and one of the highest levels on record. The manufacturing base in ABQ has been clobbered. Overall, we've lost 14,500 jobs over last August. Statewide we've dropped nearly 31,000. Santa Fe is now at 6.3 percent unemployment, a job loss of 2,200 over the year. And that's a government town. The Las Cruces area matches ABQ's 7.4 percent unemployment number.

THIS IS DIFFERENT
Romero
This is a slow, grinding recession and in many ways breathtaking in its scope. We thought we had seen the worst. We're not so sure as jobs continue to disappear. You business owners know how much you are feeling it as traffic slows at your front doors.

In the ABQ mayoral race, Democratic candidate Richard Romero has been the most aggressive in addressing the jobs plight, envisioning a future government structure in which there are far fewer political employees and deputy directors. He also calls on economic planners to switch focus from going after big business to growing small businesses. He wants renewable energy jobs as a centerpiece of a new economy. (He has a five minute video on the local economy posted prominently on his Web site.) State leaders might want to lend him an ear. While avoiding layoffs is admirable, in the long-term it is no substitute for the fundamental restructuring that Santa Fe needs, but which the administration is reluctant to tackle.

BILL'S MIGRAINE

There are, of course, real people behind the jobless numbers. Governor Richardson has been given migraines over the multiple computer screw-ups at the Workforce Solutions Department. He recently named Ken Ortiz as the new director. Ortiz should forget about any vacation for the rest of the year. He has thousands of New Mexicans to serve. He also needs to be thinking about getting enough money to extend unemployment benefits for months at a time. This downturn shows no signs of abating--at least not on the jobs front. If he hasn't already, maybe Bill needs to assign a top aide just to ride herd on the labor agency. Right now, it is arguably the most important one in his cabinet.

THE TOUGH CALLS


Keep Don HarrisWe share the wariness of key state Senators like John Arthur "Dr. No" Smith over the gimmick of using short-term bonds to cover the mammoth $433 million shortfall--perhaps more--that the state faces this current budget year. But we also fully see the point of finance secretary Katherine Miller that the alternative to that may be throwing even more people out of work by laying off state employees. However, it's difficult to share Secretary Miller's sentiment that furlough is the other "F" word. There is real suffering going on in the private sector and government employees have no God-given right to be exempt from the pain.

Can the administration and Dr. No and Representative Lucky Varela find room for compromise? How about if the Guv entertains furloughs and reduced hours (starting with the highest paid employees) but legislators take layoffs off the table? Then, how about if Dr. No and Company agree with the Guv that we issue some short term "sponge" bonds, but not $135 million?

New Mexicans are tired--many are very scared--and they want compromise, not a body count, when the Governor calls lawmakers into special session to deal with the crisis.

SHOW ME THE MONEY

It got sticky for GOP mayoral hopeful RJ Berry this week when Mayor Chavez and Dem Richard Romero agreed to release their recent tax returns, but Berry refused. Marty says in '08 he took in his $107,000 mayoral salary and over $5,000 in royalties from three oil companies (We're waiting for Romero's numbers). Chavez stuck it to Berry for his refusal and Berry's campaign came back with this:


...Berry has complied with all transparency requirements required by...and has disclosed his sources of income on the candidate financial disclosure statement...
Chavez wants Berry to release tax returns that include personal information pertaining to his family. This is not required by law and Berry’s family members are not running for mayor, therefore he will not subject his family to this invasion of privacy...

But it was KKOB-AM radio that issued the tax return challenge, not Chavez. One can understand Berry's reluctance over releasing tax info and we don't recall candidate tax returns being released in past mayoral campaigns. But this is a game of political poker. Romero and Chavez anted up. RJ didn't and he got dealt out.

A GIRL NAMED MARIA
Maria & RJ
And Berry finally addressed the implication in Chavez's attack piece (see Monday's blog) that Berry is hiding behind the skirts of his wife--Maria--because she is the actual owner of Cumbre Construction--and as an Hispanic qualified for nearly $50 million in contracts under the federal government's minority and women owned business program. RJ told KKOB radio's Jim Villanucci Maria is not a front for him. That she has a solid work record of her own and that Cumbre represents "twenty years of blood sweat and tears."

Maria is the owner. I am the chief operating officer. Maria started in 1996..She is a licensed general contractor. I joined her. I was working for a large construction firm. I quit my job to join her...She runs the company...She is there every day...a lot of midnights..and 80 hour weeks. Maria started working with me back in the 80's. She worked part-time for almost a decade..What we have here is a political machine and mayor who knows he is is losing on the issues.

According to this article, Maria (Medina) Berry worked for state government as an income support specialist before getting into the construction business full-time.

Berry also released records showing that RJ Berry Enterprises, Inc. has generated income and paid taxes. That's the business consulting firm that Chavez said had no sales and no income. Marty uses it to debunk Berry's TV ad that says he is a "successful businessman." The records show that Berry paid about $7,000 in state taxes from RJ Berry Enterprises over two years. (Records posted here.) The Berry campaign says that makes Chavez's claim that the business had "no income" factually incorrect.

This all started when Berry cut that TV ad calling himself a successful businessman, clearly meaning his involvement with Cumbre Construction. Maria has actual ownership of the company, though the pair work together. But Chavez's campaign focused on a business listed as being owned by RJ Berry, not Maria, and saw state records that appeared to show it was largely dormant. The Chavez hit piece implied that it was that business that Berry was talking about on his TV ad--not Cumbre--so how could Berry label himself a success? Berry was then supposed to be embarrassed into acknowledging that Cumbre was minority-owned, how it was all a sham just so he could get construction contracts meant for minority owned businesses and that he wasn't a successful businessman after all.

A CAMPAIGN THEME SONG

Got all that? If not, relax and join us in honoring Maria's entry onto the brighly lit stage of La Politica. For your listening enjoyment, here's "Maria," from Westside Story. RJ, you can sing it to your bride.

THEY SAW THIS ONE

Just as our Alligators get done saying "cap and trade" may not pose as much of a threat to southern NM Dem congressman Harry Teague as some Eastern pundits think, comes the news that the only New Mexico company listed on the New York Stock Exchange--PNM Resources--announces it is dropping out of the GOP-oriented US Chamber of Commerce:

We strongly disagree with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's position on climate change legislation and particularly reject its recent theatrics calling for a 'Scopes Monkey Trial' to put the science of climate change on trial. We believe the science is compelling enough to act sooner rather than later, and we support comprehensive federal legislation to meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect customers against unreasonable cost increases.

Who do you think the PAC for PNM will be giving money to? Harry Teague?

THE BIT PLAYERS
Wilson
Bit players continue to play in the below-the-radar race for the 2010 NM GOP Guv nomination, but the heavyweights remain on the sidelines waiting for Heather Wilson to make a move. The latest example is the endorsement of Allen Weh by former GOP state Senator Steve Komadina. That came in response to Susana Martinez's endorsement from Jack Fortner, a Farmington attorney who was appointed to the University of New Mexico Board of Regents by Democrat Big Bill.

Just about all the big names with financial firepower as well as the state's elected Republicans remain sidelined. However, if the bit players are delegates to the pre-primary convention next March their endorsements will help the candidates in their efforts to get the 20 percent of the convention delegates necessary to get on the June primary ballot.

THE REAL DEAL

You can now get real New Mexico green chile in LA? That's news.

Thanks for tuning in this week. E-mail your news and comments.
Reporting to you from Albuquerque, New Mexico, I'm Joe Monahan.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Mayoral Trio Put Through Their Paces On TV Debate; Did It Change The Race? Plus: Don't Get The Oxygen Out Yet; Analyst Says Teague Breathes

A lively one hour prime time TV debate had the three mayoral hopefuls hopscotching through the major issues of the day, testing their knowledge, poise and ability to think quickly in a way rarely seen on the daily campaign trail. All three vindicated themselves, but the goal of the challengers to change the fundamental path of the contest came up short. We ended where we started--an earnest RJ Berry holding on to his Republican base, an animated Richard Romero exciting his and a well-prepared Mayor Chavez protecting his from any raids. (Full video here. Newspaper coverage here.)

If there was a defining moment in the KOB-TV debate, it may have come in the back and forth over whether ABQ is a "Sanctuary City." RJ Berry asked Mayor Chavez why city police do not adopt the more aggressive policy of the Bernalillo County Sheriff in ferreting out possible illegal immigrants when they make arrests. Chavez quickly responded by enumerating how murder, auto theft and other crimes have risen dramatically in the areas where the tougher policy is in effect. Besides blowing a big hole in Berry's argument, it exposed the soft underbelly of the Republican strategy--in working to take out Chavez, they are seeking almost exclusively Republican votes which will make up less than a third of the turnout October 6.

Berry's continued tough talk on immigration signaled to analysts that he was not making a play for Hispanics and independents in the final days, reducing the threat that he will be able to grow beyond the low 30's on Election Night.

The Alligator consensus has Berry in second place in this battle, and Democrat Richard Romero seemed to know it. He worked hard to upend Chavez, but it was no easy task. He hammered the mayor over raiding funds meant to improve roads and parks to balance the city's regular operating budget. But Chavez twice pointed out how the city budget was "approved unanimously" by the city council.

Romero's most effective moment and Chavez's weakest came when Romero scoffed at Chavez's contention that the city had built a strong private sector economy and that it has helped ABQ weather the recession. Romero rattled off the list of companies that have announced layoffs in the past year--"Comcast, Eclipse, GE, Advent." He sounded like the high school principal he once was, but he may have forgotten one lesson--keep pounding the point.

In the latter part of the hour broadcast live from the ABQ Academy, Berry scored points when he argued for term limits, reinforcing the most effective part of his campaign TV spot that mentions Chavez. Berry was the fresh face on the stage and the one best positioned to take advantage of the anti-incumbent contingent in the electorate. "What is he going to accomplish in 16 years that he hasn't in 12?" queried Berry, delivering the money line that has been the most potent for him.

But what the NE Heights state representative gained, he lost when Chavez tore into him for not agreeing to release his tax returns. Chavez and Romero have agreed to the request, but Berry, who operates a construction company with his wife, demurred. He pointed out that he filled out the required city forms detailing where he gets his income. But Chavez pounced like a hungry cheetah.

"I know it's not comfortable, but the public has a right to now. That's open and transparent government." Chavez nearly gloated.

Like the Sanctuary City issue, the tax return matter did not help Berry with independents. He must be stewing over it. There was Marty Chavez, previously mired in the ABQPAC scandal, the airport observation deck scandal, the recent Bode aviation pay-to-play charges and he was grabbing the high ground on ethics. Chavez had to relish the moment as much as Berry dreaded it.

THE MEDIA BEAT

The TV face-off was the one and only chance for ABQ voters to get an unfiltered look at the candidates on one of the big network affiliates. We sometimes shudder when we hear of remote broadcasts in the NM market as they have often been hobbled by technical glitches that disrupt the proceedings. But that was not the case last night. The production went off without a hitch and was visually appealing with the candidates cast against a blue backdrop. The signature of KOB-TV political debates in recent years is to have the moderators not get in the way of the main event. Anchors Tom Joles and Nicole Brady carried on that tradition, throwing out what seemed a constant stream of questions and requests for rebuttal, but not needlessly interjecting themselves or interrupting for annoying station promotions. Nicely done.

MORE MAYOR MEDIA BEAT

RJ Berry was thrown a break by the ABQ Journal in its coverage of Mayor Chavez's attack of Berry's assertion that he is a "successful businessman." The paper picked up on the Chavez mail piece first blogged here Monday, but did not go into detail over the ownership of Cumbre Construction, the company that Berry operates with his wife Maria, who is the owner. The Journal notes that Cumbre benefitted from its status as a "woman owned" enterprise. They did not say "minority and woman owned," leaving alone the Chavez implication that Berry was using his Hispanic wife to get federal contracts.

There's a bunch of campaign hit mail now circulating as the campaign nears its peak. It looks like the Journal has gathered up most of the hits and comes with this review.

EVEN MORE MAYOR MEDIA BEAT

The Alibi says Mayor Marty is played out and it's time for Mayor Romero. The liberal weekly, which circulates heavily the University of New Mexico area, also endorsed city council candidates Ike Benton, Don Harris and Michael Cadigan. The ABQ Journal will probably come with its endorsement this Sunday and Chavez is favored to get it.

TEAGUE OR NO TEAGUE?
Rep. Teague
We're detecting quite a split in opinion between the East coast and observers here on the ground on the importance of the climate change bill on the southern congressional race featuring incumbent Dem Harry Teague and Republican challenger Steve Pearce. Many Eastern analysts we've read see Teague's vote for a "cap and trade" measure as putting him near death's door when it comes to his re-election chances, but analysts and Alligators here on the ground don't see it as clear cut.

A most recent example from the East is the analysis from the ABQ Journal Washington bureau reporter Michael Coleman who termed it a "questionable political decision" for Teague to attend a D.C. fundraiser co-hosted by Rep. Henry Waxman, the California Dem who chairs the House Energy and Commerce Committee and is an ardent liberal backer of cap and trade. Coleman is right that it is "questionable," but the answer to the question does not necessarily cut against the freshman lawmaker.

Democrat analyst and pollster Harry Pavlides, who has worked the Southern district, does not see the cap and trade issue as the make and break vote for Teague. He says that vote will be the one Teague casts on the public option in a national health care plan. He expects Teague to vote nay.

"The cap and trade vote is rallying the Republican base, but it will be difficult to extend it district wide. If I were Teague I would cast it as a vote that was good for the country and the future--a patriotic approach. He is an oil man and that will also give him cover. The votes that he will lose on cap and trade are already for Pearce. His attending that Waxman fund-raiser could result in goodies for Teague--for example, better committee assignments down the road and more federal goodies for his district," Analyzed Pavlides.

Pavlides sees the Teague-Pearce race being decided in the Dona Ana County area, not in the southeastern oil counties. He says that it is extremely unlikely Pearce will be able to get more than 65 percent of the vote against an incumbent US congressman in the SE and sees the race going to populous Dona Ana where cap and trade is not necessarily a dirty phrase. He also pooh-poohs the notion of a voter uprising against Teague in that county that gave him a 15,000 plus vote win in 2008. The "Tea Parties" and other protests are drawing from the Republican and conservative base, not expanding it, Pavlides argues, and sites national polling to back up his contention.

"The question is turnout, especially among Hispanics. Teague can withstand the cap and trade controversy. What you are seeing unfold is a Democratic strategy of building Teague up in Dona Ana. The energy secretary visited there recently and the secretary of agriculture has a visit scheduled. You are going to see more and more of this, probably culminating with a visit by President Obama in the final days of the election. They are not sending these folks to the conservative counties because that's not where the election is going to be decided." Opined Pavlides.

For sure, some powerful stuff will be coming Harry Teague's way. That's how it is when your party controls the White House and United States Congress. R's have done an excellent job in raising expectations for Pearce, but veteran voices here are saying Teague is headed for a heated scrap, but is far from being on life-support.

PRC FOLLOW-UP

That southern race for the Public Regulation Commission made news this week when incumbent Sandy Jones signaled he will seek the Dem nod for state land commissioner, leaving the PRC after one term. We listed former PRC commissioner Tony Schaefer of Las Cruces as a possible candidate for the Jones seat, but Schaefer tells us: "I am not running."

We erred when we called Tony a Republican. He was an R when he won a PRC back in the 90's but later became a Dem and he says he remains one today. Former Dem Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley wants to run for the Jones seat and is expected to make a formal announcement soon.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news, comments and photos.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

What's Good For New York is Good For NM? Obama Power Play Analyzed, Plus: Some R's Restless Over Wilson Fence-Sitting, And: Land Office Rush

If they're doing it in New York, why not New Mexico? The aggressiveness of the White House political arm was on full display this week as it moved to persuade unpopular Dem NY Governor David Paterson to abandon re-election plans. Paterson is resisting, but the point for those of us 2,000 miles away is that Obama is not being shy about delving into internal state politics. Which brings us to Big Bill.

The Doubting Thomases say he's too hot to handle for a foreign policy appointment that would get him out of the state and dramatically improve the Dems chances of keeping the Guv's chair here as Light Guv Denish would immediately be named to succeed him. They argue his ethics shadow is too long and that, besides, the Dems are well-positioned to take the Governor's office without any added machinations.

But the Thomases aren't seeking re-election in 2012. Obama is. Anything he can do to improve his chances in a key swing state like New Mexico is on the table--including moving Richardson out. In fact, it would seem Bill's odds for getting something from Obama may be better while he is governor. Giving him something after his term ends nets the White House much less politically.

BILL AND THE BUDGET
For the Governor, a one way ticket out of the state is looking like a trip he could enjoy. He may be able to hold off the economic forces pummeling the state for a couple of more months, but not for more than a year. Having Denish make the painful cuts necessary to restructure the government for leaner times may look appealing.

The Governor insists on no layoffs, no furloughs and no cuts in education. And much of that may be possible for the current budget year which will be addressed in the special session in October, but the administration is looking the other way when it comes to long term trends for the New Mexican economy. Richardson is being slowly painted in a corner by the collapse in state revenues and he is setting himself up for a bloody fight if he clings to his pre-bubble economic notions. Gimmicks like "sponge bonds" to close the mammoth budget gap are only going to get you so far. All the more reason for Bill to hope that the White House's meddling in state political affairs extends to New Mexico and to him.

GETTING ORNERY

Arnold-Jones
Irritation is growing in the Republican ranks over Heather Wilson. The former ABQ GOP Congresswoman is essentially freezing fund-raising for the already announced Guv candidates by refusing to say whether she will make a run of her own for the 2010 Guv nod. A supporter of ABQ State Representative and Guv candidate Janice Arnold-Jones e-mails:

Heather Wilson cannot beat Diane Denish, so why are you suggesting that she is the only R that's a viable candidate? Your doing so only reinforces the notion that only incumbents are welcome and newcomers need not even try. It's 99% about money, and your fawning over Heather Wilson only keeps the money from coming to the candidates that need it.


We've said Wilson, 48, is probably the R's strongest potential candidate for 2010, but that is a view we are getting from top R's and not the result of any "fawning" over her. She'd snicker if she heard that considering that some of her closest supporters have long been some of our most vociferous critics.

The Alligators gaming this race report in that it is Allen Weh, 66, who most benefits from Wilson sitting on the fence. The ABQ businessman is expected to self-finance his campaign from his personal fortune and doesn't need to be raising big bucks, but Arnold-Jones, Susana Martinez and Doug Turner do.

Wilson and Weh are close. She was instrumental in getting him named NM GOP Chairman in 2004. His CSI Aviation has been the beneficiary of millions in government contracts stemming in part from the war in Iraq. For Weh, the ideal outcome would be Wilson waiting until January to announce that she is not getting in the race. If she got in, he could be expected to get out and back her. If she didn't, she would have frozen contributions to Weh's foes, shortening the time they have to catch up to Weh. Is that called having your cake and eating it, too?

JACK'S NOT BACK

Back in June of 2007 we blogged about Farmington Republican and University of New Mexico Board of Regent member Jack Fortner toying with the idea of a GOP Guv run, but insiders say it appears he will not run and instead support fellow attorney and Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez. San Juan County is heavy R, but Fortner's relationship with Big Bill, who appointed him to the UNM Regents, does not help him with many hardcore R's. An R insider says former Farmington area state Rep. Dick Cheney, who lost the 1994 GOP Guv nod to Gary Johnson, is also going to support Martinez for the GOP Guv nod. But will that support translate into money? That's the question and the problem, isn't it?

SANDY'S FOOTPRINTS

Jones
Rancher and Public Regulation Commission Chairman Sandy Jones wants a greener political pasture--and perhaps a less controversial one--so he's leaving his southern PRC seat to make a run for the 2010 Democratic nomination for state Land Commissioner.

The Jones entry, reported by Las Cruces reporter Heath Haussamen, complicates matters for ABQ's Ray Powell, a former ten year commissioner who has announced another bid for the Dem nod after losing to Jim Baca in 2006. Former Attorney General Patricia Madrid has toyed with running as well, but nothing firm yet. Meanwhile, the names of other possible Hispanic Dems are floating. Espanola Mayor Joe Maestas, a recent drop-out from the Dem Light Guv race, is said to be weighing a bid as is Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya.

Alligator analysis says a conservative Dem like Jones will appeal to the oil and gas industry which has enjoyed the eight year tenure of Pat Lyons who is term-limited and seeking the other southern Public Regulation Commission seat in 2010. On the GOP side, Bob Cornelius of Lea County and Errol Chavez of Dona Ana are in, but neither has yet received support from oil and gas, traditionally a major player in the land office contest.

Besides wanting to branch out politically, Jones may want to escape the PRC because it has become a political cesspool for just about everyone there. Jones took a hit recently for hiring a twice convicted felon as an executive assistant, an issue that he recently told me he thought was overblown, but one we will hear about if he wins the nomination.

REPLACING SANDY
McCamley and Baca
Jones beat PRC Commissioner E. Shirley Baca in the 2006 Dem primary after she was busted in 2004 for pot possession at the ABQ airport. The charges were dropped. Word has been circulating recently that Baca was considering running against Jones in 2010. However, former Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, who says he will get in the PRC race as soon as Jones makes his exit official, says he has spoken with Baca and she has told him she will not run.

But that won't quiet the speculation about getting a Hispanic Dem in the contest, especially one from Las Cruces like Baca. Cruces and vicinity will be ground zero in the southern congressional battle between Dem incumbent Harry Teague and Republican Steve Pearce. A Hispanic PRC nominee out of Cruces could help Teague spike the vote that was so critical to his win two years ago. The plot thickens when you throw in the fact that McCamley challenged Teague for the Dem primary nomination two years ago and narrowly lost.

The district performs Dem so that party's nominee will have the leg up going into the general election.

THE CRASH CONTINUES

No, the bottom has not been reached in Santa Fe real estate:

Developer Don Tishman is planning an auction of 24 condominiums in his Zocalo residential project on the northeast side of Santa Fe.

The auction features units with starting bids as low as $90,000 on homes previously priced at up to $365,000.


ROMERO RADIO

Dem ABQ mayoral candidate Richard Romero has decided against TV spots so far, but he is up with radio. In one spot, he calls for the city to encourage small business development over big fish like failed Eclipse Aviation. In another he calls for putting more cops on the streets and cites "horrific" crime images that have made national news.

A Romero insider says internal polling shows Mayor Chavez below the 40% required to avoid a run-off election. That would not be that unusual. Chavez usually bumps up against the 40% mark before a final surge puts him over. But the hope for the field is that he is not pulling away, keeping hope alive for that run-off. The Journal is in the field this week and is expected to come with its one and only poll of the race this Sunday.

KOB-TV will host the major debate of the mayoral season tonight at 9 p.m. The three candidates will go at it for an hour. The debate will be simulcast on 770 KKOB-AM radio which asked the candidates Tuesday to release their tax returns: Chavez agreed:

All three mayoral candidates received a request from KKOB-AM for personal state and federal tax returns. Mayor Martin J. Chavez’ tax returns, as requested, have been provided by his CPA and are being delivered to the radio station.

We'll have live Election Night coverage on KANW 89.1 FM starting at 6:30 p.m. October 6 and we'll have a pre-game show at 5 p.m. Monday also on KANW.

THE BOTTOM LINES

From the Guv:

Governor Richardson announced the winner of the inaugural Governor’s Green Chile Cheeseburger Challenge. Badlands Burgers, of Grants beat out 19 other contestants in the cook-off challenge, which was staged on the State Fairgrounds.

“It is my pleasure to award Badlands Burgers with the prestigious title of Best Green Chile Cheeseburger in New Mexico,” Governor Richardson said to a significant crowd of onlookers during the award presentation immediately following the cook-off.

Well, they call hamburger the poor man's steak, and with the state budget being what it is, this is one contest appropriate to the times.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author